Or replace the policy fundamentals into focus
Recalling the August 2009 market performance has been adjusting its policies to become the most critical factor affecting the market, adjusting structure, and extremely loose monetary policy, the gradual withdrawal of the real estate market regulation, a substantial expansion of the stock market so the market for as long as 8 month adjustment. However, from the recent market performance, the surface of this policy led by the market trend is expected to gradually shift the market focus is expected to again return to economic fundamentals. On the one hand, the policy is expected to reverse in January, after 2 months of digestion, the follow-up policy, the current market trends in a certain normalization of the expected withdrawal of the policy impact on the market decreasing, or exit the market for policy to withstand the intensity is increasing, this can be seen by the statutory deposit reserve ratio increase secondary market after the reaction can be seen; the other hand, with the end of the two sessions, the pre-hot spot to bring a number of policy themes as short-term speculation in stocks or more large or will come to an end, the market will be re-return to the economic and performance fundamentals.
Compared to policy adjustments, the market is more concerned with policy adjustments on economic fundamentals and performance impact. This is evident from the recent market performance of the structural features seen, although the initial investment is the market hot topic, but it is associated with the economic cycle, high finance, steel, coal, real estate and other weight plate has been hovering at the bottom, which also determines the market the trend has been in shock adjustment process. However, after eight months of adjustment, the future market will choose the direction, therefore, closely related with the economic cycle, financial, mining, steel, chemicals and other weight plates will be the focus, the economy and the possibility of performance fundamentals policy adjustments to maintain good recovery in the context of the trend will be the key to determining future market movements. According to our macro-group judgments, despite the short-term foreign debt crisis of the Greek market, there are still risks, but the United States and other overseas economies, recovery well, the second dip, the future economy is unlikely, therefore, compared with 2009, exports will become an important engine for economic growth this year. In addition, from the latest macro data, although the slowdown in investment growth, but the private sector investment in the accelerated consumption to remain strong, the economy of endogenous growth momentum is increasing, and these indicate that the possibility of future economic bottom by the second small. If this assumption is valid, and economic cycles are closely related to the financial, mining, steel, and chemical performance of the weight plates will usher in opportunity.
Double-cycle varieties have the offensive and defensive characteristics of
From the valuation perspective, finance, coal, iron and steel, building materials, chemicals and real estate valuation of the weight plates in a low-lying land, have a certain defensive. On the one hand, from the market-style point of view, regardless of market performance and relative valuation, in the small-cap stocks are down there exists an obvious risk of small-cap stocks in the monthly rate of return is close to six months ahead of large capitalization stocks, close to the historical peak; the relative valuations of large capitalization stocks has also been a long time at a record high, the future market with a certain style of conversion basis; the other hand, industry-specific point of view, food tourism, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, information services, medicine, biotechnology, and other consumption Plate Since the early or too large, the current valuation reflects a certain extent, future growth expectations, as the two policies to stimulate the end of the short-term difficult to continue a sharp rise, in addition to some individual stocks by the annual report or to promote the performance of Quotes, the entire plate too difficult to obtain short-term excess returns; and finance, mining, ferrous metals, building materials, chemicals, real estate industry is different, the recent period has been in the sideways shocks bottomed in 2010, Dynamic PE were only 13.64,15.79, 16.59,17.31,17.77 and 18.19 times, at the low end of all industries, therefore, from a valuation perspective, have a certain margin of safety, despite the recent tightening of monetary policy expected by the repression, the valuation of these industries is still difficult to quickly short-term uplift However, as the economic recovery to bring the good performance of the fundamentals identified export-led Waihuizhankuan increases, the faster pace of currency in circulation, as well as the potential appreciation of the renminbi is expected to hot money flows and other factors, such power will be suppressed a gradual weakening of the value of undervalued large cap blue-chip blocks is expected to usher in the next valuation and performance of the double upgrade.
As the policy became clear, in addition to annual Quotes driven in part by or the performance of individual stocks, the pre-theme will gradually come to an end speculation in stocks, while the banking, insurance, brokerage, real estate, coal underestimate the value of the periodic plate is different , stimulating more factors, in addition to the currently displayed more determined that the economic recovery trend, margin trading and stock index futures will soon launch the RMB appreciation expectations, rising inflation expectations and other factors, will have the weight of these large cap cyclical shares a certain stimulus.
Key configuration finance, coal and chemical
Current theme stock speculation come to an end, the lack of incentives for small-cap stocks will face a certain amount of valuation risk, and underestimate the value of the cyclical nature of the industry because of its both offensive and defensive characteristics, will become an inevitable choice for the medium-term allocation. We recommend that should be gradually increased to the banking, insurance, brokerage, coal, iron and steel, chemicals, building materials, real estate and other cyclical sectors configuration. On the one hand, these industries in 2010 low dynamic valuation, with a greater margin of safety; the other hand, these industries are all the weight plates, the future has a certain stimulus, in addition to the forthcoming launch of margin trading and stock index futures for these constitutes a positive weight plates, the yuan appreciation is expected to be positive in the banking, insurance, real estate and other assets, the larger plate, inflation is expected to be positive banking, coal, real estate and other plates.
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