Exchange rate can not repeat the tragedy of the Japanese stock market was also watching the next few weeks to switch on
(A) the RMB exchange rate does not rise, the tragedy can not be repeated in Japan
Recently, the United States, many Members unanimously RMB appreciation pressure on China that emerged between the U.S. and a large trade deficit is China's currency the yuan down, depressed export prices, take away the jobs of workers due to the United States.
On this issue, economists Robert Mundell and Justin Lin does not have firm support for China's yuan revaluation policy. I think it is their right. China should never be under political pressure in the United States compromise on this issue.
Japan learned a lesson for me. In 1971, Nixon announced that after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the yen began to gradual appreciation of the road, but the United States still not satisfied. In 1985 opened a Plaza in New York meeting, signed the impact of Japan's decades of economic direction, "Plaza Accord", to force the appreciation of the yen and the deutsche mark. So was forced to speed up the appreciation of the yen, the Japanese economy gone from the golden age of Japanese exports increasingly expensive up, exports become increasingly difficult. Japan's economy into full recession in order to avoid taking an extremely loose monetary policy. Very low interest rates in hopes of stimulating domestic consumption and investment, the results of massive floods, such as the influx of money, consumption and investment are not, the Japanese real estate and the stock market was up nearly 8-10 times (counting from 1971), the stock market reached 38900 points! When the formation of a huge bubble, the Japanese Government also quite Lu to pierce the bubble: raise interest rates to 6.5%, raising value-added real estate transactions. Results From 1990 onwards, the rapid economic bubble in Japan burst, the stock market plunged the housing market (Diediao 80%); from a depressed economy, until now, the Japanese stock market has only 11000 points; economic growth rate to get up, this next year about to be in China to catch up.
Now the U.S. pressing China for yuan revaluation situation and circumstances, and the "Plaza Accord" exactly the same time. But China is not Japan, the Japanese in World War II by the United States threw two atomic bombs, over the years still badly shaken; Japan more than 150 girls to Douglas MacArthur, commander of the occupying forces to write a letter courtship, for fear of the United States is evident. China is not a member of seven western countries, China in the Korean War, in extreme poverty, weapons and equipment, poor circumstances, with the U.S. military and the "United Nations forces" punched "tied." It is said that only one country in the world are not afraid of the United States, it is a great China. China is a sovereign and independent of the big country, a country's exchange rate should make decisions by themselves. 1994 -2005 years, China's Zhu Rongji, under the leadership of Guo Shuqing, adhere to the yuan pegged to the U.S. dollar "policy 1:8.28," insisted during the Asian financial crisis, not devaluing the renminbi, the result has won the respect of the world, those years of China's exports strong, I get a gold for 10 years, promoting the reform and opening up and economic development.
In July 2005, in a variety of reasons, the yuan began to appreciate, rose to 1:6.85 from 1:8.28 area. But the result is the decline in exports (the United States is also the one hand, financial crises); foreign trade enterprises to become very difficult. The original container can be a profitable thousands, on the yuan, to the later merely earn three or four hundred yuan, and tens of million private enterprises out of business liquidation, and bankruptcy; 20 million migrant workers back to rural areas; falling living standards for workers and peasants , which is positive appreciation of the RMB has a direct causal relationship. Some enterprises exports have remaining 3-4% of the low-profit, wages to the workers made it difficult, all kinds of sharp social contradictions together. So that by 2008, China stopped yuan appreciation, but also the introduction of dollar-pegged exchange rate policy (which is fully in line with China's national conditions and the correct initiatives).
Now the United States a large number of Members in the general election season again in an argument with "RMB appreciation" of the matter, China should not ignore them, China is not Japan. I sell cheap goods to you, what you quarrels? Your merchandise is expensive, wages are simply too high, why not lower wages? Because they are afraid the workers strike, afraid of trade unions, the Chinese are not afraid of returning migrant workers, the unemployment rate increase? China must not repeat the old Japan will be the economy into the abyss of perdition. Obama came to power, in fact, subservient to trade protectionism, learn the former, in many places pressure on China (such as meeting with the Dalai Lama, supported a number of industries in China Shi levy punitive tariffs on arms sales to Taiwan, etc.), China should Danding freely adhere to their own correct position. In fact, even if the RMB appreciation, the overall situation of Sino-US trade would not be a big change, China's market will be Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia away, Americans still do not do such "dirty work, Lei Huo," the. (China's attitude on this issue, firm and tough, so that the expected appreciation of the renminbi, and the result U.S. dollar rose, oil, gold, non-ferrous metals such as downhill. However, the overall objective point of view, is to ensure China's sustainable economic growth in the right direction. )
(B) this week: the housing market was underway, the stock market half of the water side of the flames Friday wearing a yin and yang
The housing market: Beijing, Hangzhou and other big cities the real estate market is on the rise, it is anxious. Pathological constantly, Diego Diego endlessly to rise, certainly to go wrong. (Mainly so far no real control measures introduced.)
Stock Market: from Thursday until the broader market fluctuations are always up down (Thursday, falling for a day), large-cap stocks have been exposed is flagging. In sharp contrast, the SME board, the GEM in many companies is booming. See Thursday before the Ireland ophthalmology, red medicine, Hanwang science and technology, IMC-tat, etc., under the leadership of the Ultrapower firmly up. People are looking for another batch of Suning Appliance and Guizhou Maotai. This is the talk of Mao Zedong: "The West, the East does not shine bright, black and the North are the South," China's stock market is always a chance.
Friday, led by bank shares, the stock market rose 40 points, there has been a long absence, blue chip Quotes. Bank stocks have played a mainstay on the role. In addition, the May 1, the Shanghai World Expo will be the day of rejoicing around the corner, the Expo concept of re-wind and water, there has been a few daily limit. SME Board and Growth Enterprise Market made a second technical adjustments. As the volume has only about 110.5 billion yuan (Shenzhen identical) and therefore large, small-cap stocks will do the big stage switch, but also need to look at.
Margin trading with the launch of stock index futures soon, which will certainly benefit the blue chips, but unfortunately too many restrictions on its initial (such as the volume of financing the country only a few tens of billions), so the market reaction would have been milder, be sure to wait for the development of a pilot paragraph, will play a greater role.
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