Yuan is being ushered in a tough fight in us, but we are lack of preparation. Prevent us from carrying on normal contest between the United States dollar, the price bubble is too large, the slightest slip of concentration, not just the price bubble will burst, but the entire economy will be a hard landing.
India's central bank last Friday announced that it will repurchase rate and reverse repo rate by 0.25 percentage points, respectively, to 5% and 3.5% respectively. Because of India's central bank raising interest rates move in a regular monetary policy meeting before the launch of the market by surprise. Is not at all unexpected, has increased interest rates in Malaysia, India and Vietnam in such Asian countries Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even Canada, we must bear with rate hikes, the trend has been very clear.
In addition to the euro and the United States, the world's major economies, the inflation trend is clear, China is no exception. The asset bubble of the most serious of the economy is China. India announced a hike, the dollar index up 80.23 to 80.89 points on the probe, the yuan appreciation of 0.0002. This corresponds to organize the bulk of asset prices, gold fell 19.9 U.S. dollars the day to close at 1107.6 U.S. dollars. Technical specifications according to Fibonacci analysis, the price of gold in this callback will test a low 1088 U.S. dollars, the basic can support only in 1045 U.S. dollars to be in alignment to form repeated shocks.
Now the question is, why is India's central bank announced the rate hike will push the dollar index? Who is to do more U.S. dollars? The intention of dollars to do what place? These problems, think up some food for thought. As the yuan, the Indian currency in the dollar index does not weight. U.S. Dollar Index US Dollar Index (USDX) was first introduced, from 10 foreign species composition, respectively, the German mark, French franc, Dutch guilder, Italian lira, Belgian franc, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc .
Euro 1999 after the release of five persons, who are the euro zone currencies, therefore, the dollar index in 2000 also made a corresponding adjustment to the euro instead of the five currencies. So, now the U.S. dollar index is constituted by the six kinds of currency. Euro EUR weight which accounted for 0.576, followed by accounting for 0.136 yen JPY, GBP sterling accounted for 0.119, accounting for 0.091 Canadian dollar CAD, accounting for 0.042 Swedish Krona SEK Swiss franc CHF accounted for 0.036. India, therefore, interest rates, the dollar index rose sharply, there is no corresponding logic.
Analyzed together, the dollar is likely to use the occasion of India's central bank raising interest rates, short selling euros to suppress commodity prices, so as to achieve the purpose of kill three birds: one is temporarily out of direct confrontation with the yuan exchange rate, so that the slow appreciation of the yuan on their own; The second is to suppress commodity asset prices to prevent inflation in the United States occurred; third is short the euro, and even to the destruction of the euro system, the euro 10 years of hard work looted.
So, in this case, the RMB appreciation can be pressure come next. China at this time can, in fact counterplot, short gold, to suppress the Indian Currency. The reason why gold has support at 1045 U.S. dollars, mainly because the central bank of India in the International Monetary Fund to buy 200 tons of gold price, and accumulated a lot of buying. U.S. dollar index rose to provide the environment for short selling of gold, while India's rate hikes will be recovered mobility, reduce speculative funds buying gold. At this point short of gold, you can break the Indian currency and the dollar appreciation of the interests of the synchronization chain, the RMB's international status to consolidate and enhance the role.
The most important thing is that this time short selling of gold, will be able to delay the timing of the appreciation of the yuan, to be a time when China's exports into a deficit, then an appropriate appreciation, hedging foreign exchange reserves with the trade deficit caused by the appreciation of the yuan has shrunk, and will not make China enormous damage to export enterprises. Failure to do so, India will likely overtake China as the largest U.S. trading partner, it can not avoid China's export enterprises will no longer be hit.
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