This week (March 22-3, 26 week) foreign exchange market, the information published by the United States outstanding performance in the fourth quarter U.S. GDP and the CPI final values are better than expected, March 20 when the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits reduction in crude oil inventories rose substantially, these factors have continued to rise for the U.S. dollar provides a strong fundamental support.
In addition, the European sovereign debt crisis, further escalation of the letter raised the demand for safe-haven buying U.S. dollars. Wednesday (24) Portugal, Greece's sovereign credit rating, after following the tragic Fitch (Fitch) down, which makes the already very weak trend of the euro continued to pressure. German government officials said Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the bilateral talks on a financial assistance program to reach an agreement, Greece and plans including those from EU member states and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance. The government official added that this agreement has been reached before the EU summit meeting. IMF program had not been settled in Greece, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's endorsement. Jean-Claude Trichet said, IMF assistance programs in Greece, without the participation of the European Union will be a very bad option. The statement after the announcement, the euro / dollar continued to go down and refresh the new 10-month low as 1.3267.
U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department) weekly report released Thursday showed that as at March 20 the number of claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1.4 million, to 44.2 million; economists expected the reduction of 0.7 million people. March 13 when the week the number of initial claims for state unemployment Ji revised from 45.7 million 45.6 million people. As of March 13 the week continued for jobless benefits for the 4.648 million people, compared with the previous week's revised 4.702 million by the people decreased by 5.4 million people.
The United States March 20 claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected, continued claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest since December 2008 level. This shows that the U.S. labor market conditions are getting better. The U.S. government's most troubled of the unemployment rate have a more marked improvement in the near future, which also strengthened the non-agricultural market information next week good predictions. U.S. Dollar Index gained strength this week, and hit a recent high of 82.24.
Beijing at 20:30 on April 2 the U.S. Labor Department will release the United States in March non-farm employment data, the market is widely expected in March non-farm data may be suggesting the U.S. job market, the worst was over. The median forecast of economists showed that the United States in March non-farm payrolls to rise by 16.8 million people, the unemployment rate expected unchanged at 2 months of 9.7%.
丹麦丹斯克 Bank (Danske Bank) in a research report said, "despite the February non-farm employment is still reduced, but there are many indications that in March non-farm data is very likely to increase substantially." The agency expects the United States 3 non-farm payrolls will increase by 40 million people, this is by far the most authoritative media survey done by an agency of optimism.
Jane Foley director of currency research at Forex.com, said in March non-farm employment data may have to give up when the Federal Reserve has always been a "long period of time to maintain low interest rates" the position has a great influence.
Japan's Tankan report or an important benchmark for the market
Looking next week, Japan's quarterly Tankan report or will be the next market leader. In addition, a number of economic data in Germany and the euro zone unemployment rate will also be the focus of investor attention. The so-called Tankan report, which the Japanese government would be nearly 10000 enterprises on a quarterly basis for future industrial trends survey of business confidence in the short-term economic prospects, as well as present and future economic conditions and outlook for corporate profits. Negative results indicated the companies are pessimistic about the economic outlook was more optimistic about the company, while the positive economic outlook, said the company was optimistic than pessimistic about the company. Japan late last year, business investment continues to be weak, but show signs of improvement, business has increased its electronics, automotive and chemical products, production inputs, in order to meet growing Asian demand for orders. According to historical show that the Government of Japan quarterly Tankan business reporting data highly representative, can accurately forecast the economic trends in Japan's future, so with the stock market and the yen exchange rate fluctuations there is considerable linkage between them.
Historical data from observation, the uncertainty of Japan's economic development still exist. Economic growth in the previous quarter, primarily driven by domestic demand, which contributed to the GDP annual growth rate of 2.1 percentage points, along with exports, which then contributed 2.2 percentage points. (The remaining 0.3 percentage points from the public demand). This may show that Japan's economy is gradually recovering its balance, good-bye (in the past two quarters) to rely on external demand to economic growth. But the fact is not true.
Almost all the increase in private consumption expenditure on durable goods came from, such as automobiles and electronic equipment to buy, thanks to last year the Government introduced a subsidy program. Auto subsidies ended in September, while in December, household appliances, subsidies have also come to an end. Once the cost of consumer durables is not included in the information, then the 4th quarter, private consumption expenditure in a downturn it was like. Wages fall and unemployment remains high, although below last year's July peak of 5.7%, but still hovering at more than 5%, which is higher than Japanese standards. Household consumption in 2009, but the overall decline in sales of Bean Sprouts has jumped 10% more than in Japan, the bean sprout is tighten its belt to survive the traditional food.
The rest is exported, it is out of the economic recession in Japan's formal path. Japan's exports has brought huge profits, while domestic demand in the proportion of GDP, account for almost 60%. The economic recovery is still fragile. The fourth quarter of last year, Japan's largest export destination of trade in China, in December alone, Japan, China's trade volume increased by 43%.
Japan's budget deficit forecast for this year's GDP, 7.8%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections Japanese If you want to before 2030, the debt ratio fell to 80% of the total GDP, it is necessary between now and 2020 to reduce its structural deficit, GDP, 13.4%. This is much higher than in other countries need to do to adjust the amount, not to mention the International Monetary Fund for other countries, has set a target debt to GDP ratio will be reduced to 60%.
According to the latest survey, the world's foreign exchange strategists believe that Japanese investors to invest abroad because of the scale has returned to the 2007 financial crisis, the highest level since the outbreak, which would boost the yen depreciated against the dollar before the end of 8 percentage points .
Analysts point out that Japanese investors are buying Chinese stocks in Brazil a large number of bonds, they are in Japan Post Bank (JapanPostBankCo.) maturity deposits, the amount of re-investment has been hit the most in nine years; this trend will drive the dollar / yen in the before the end of the year rose to 98, but according to statistics, the Japanese yen this year against the world's 155 kinds of currency devaluation is only 8.
By the Japanese near-zero interest rates, sluggish economic situation, deflation, and retired people looking for more investment income and so the driving force of the impact of Japan is continuing outflow of domestic capital. Japan Post Bank 3-year deposits, the "fixed income" only 0.11%, while Brazil's largest private bank money market accounts ItauUnibancoSA annual income is as high as 6%.
Strategist SoichiroMori said: "Having to invest abroad more and more elderly people, they have good plans for the future, the funds invested in overseas markets with higher returns."
Japan, another important retail investment power: Housewives investor base current bullish sentiment on the dollar for at least since last June, the highest level. Last year, accurately predicted the trend of yen National Australia Bank (NationalAustraliaBankLtd.) expects the dollar / yen will be based on the existing offer up 10% to reach 100 by the end of an integer mark.
EUR / USD:
EUR / USD by the further escalation of the impact of sovereign debt crises weakening again, the exchange rate to break the pattern of the recent consolidation and continued downward. EUR / USD bearish indicator on map due to the short-term moving average system winding down, MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter in the oversold region, suggesting that the exchange rate within a narrow range near term consolidation or dumped on the downlink. The currency below the key psychological support level at 1.3200; if below the bit will trigger a further downward trend downward targeting 1.3100, look at 1.3090 (March 4 low of 1.2455 hit in 2009 Zhi touched on November 25 2009 between the high point of 1.5144 Fibonacci 76.4% correction). Upside capped at 1.3388 (yesterday's high point); break will reverse the recent decline, and will further up to 1.3432 (March 2 low), look at 1.3507 (Wednesday high point).
Foreign institutions Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow foreign exchange trader said Masanobu Ishikawa, the European Union summit so far there is no constructive conclusions published, it will be the euro at present the biggest risk events; while Portugal suffered another downgrade, it also caused investors to the euro that in other high-risk countries concerns. In addition, within the euro area as fragmented, which showed that the structural defects within the region is very serious, or make the euro continued to pressure, and further weakness in the afternoon.
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