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How to determine the market peak and valley

Although we do not seek to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, but at least we do not buy at the highest point, is not sold at the lowest point, so we really want to know the peak and valley areas.

Technically can choose to wave theory, but its weakness is obvious, first, the theoretical basis of the theory does not belong to imagine the theory; followed in accordance with the terms of the theory, wave-shaped division, there will be many possibilities, and different possible Xing also often lead to conflicting conclusions.

The stock market reflects the macro-economic, so we are trying to judged by macro-economic changes the market peak and valley, but still to no avail. Because some of the number of macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, CPI, PPI, M1, M2 or even electricity, etc., and the stock market index there is no obvious correlation between the nature of, so we are perplexed, and the market peak and valley analyzing the basic point where?

Although we know that the market is unpredictable highs and lows, but the general area judged the market peak and valley is not entirely impossible, now we return to the market itself to find clues point of departure.

Elements of the market is a listed company, and the performance of listed companies is an important component of macroeconomic, therefore, listed companies can be used as a bridge between the stock market and the macro-economic. Market index by a listed company's share price calculated, but could also reflect the performance of listed companies and stock price changes in the most important indicator is the price-earnings ratio, so we can be judged that the market average price-earnings ratio as the market peak and valley of the basic starting point.

Although the exchange will be posted each day on average price-earnings ratio, but this is a static price-earnings ratio, we need dynamic price-earnings ratio, but how to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio is difficult, and some research purposes and all listed companies to calculate the expected return this year, this year, the dynamic price-earnings ratio, but the expected return deviation will affect the accuracy of dynamic price-earnings ratio. We can also use the latest reporting data to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio, for example can now already announced a quarterly to calculate the price-earnings ratio, but how to project a quarter of their annual profits is still difficult, and must not be simply multiplied by four. That the use of the semi-annual report will be published in full the data, there will still be the same problem, so to calculate dynamic price-earnings ratio to change their thinking.

Because the expected annual GDP will grow over time accurately, and therefore, through the GDP estimate is based on the overall performance of listed companies, the growth rate is feasible. With the Stock Exchange announced the static price-earnings ratio of listed companies coupled with the expected earnings growth rate, we can arrive at roughly the dynamic price-earnings ratio.

Shanghai stock market, taking into account a number of large blue chips, so Shanghai stock market, the average price-earnings ratio more representative. According to the exchange statistics, the Shanghai stock market price-earnings ratio of 30 times recently, GDP, this year's goal is to protect eight, but a lot of GDP is driven by government investment, so the performance of listed companies, the average GDP growth rate may not reach the level of the significance of departure from the conservative, we offer companies an average of five points of this growth, so that dynamic and static price-earnings ratio price-earnings ratio was close.

According to the historical experience of overseas market, the average price-earnings ratio of 20 times the volatility to 30 times more, so the market has entered the peak area, if the average price-earnings ratio to return to close to 20 times, this is another opportunity for the bottom.

Enable the market to reach peak and valley regions there must be some fundamental reason, based on Otherwise, the market would not be such big fluctuations.

Maybe we will miss the previous peak of 60 times earnings and 12 times the earnings of the bottom, but it is hard to re-appear, because the market is already in full circulation sense standardized and matured.
Although we know that the market is unpredictable highs and lows, but the general area judged the market peak and valley is not entirely impossible, now we return to the market itself to find clues point of departure.

Elements of the market is a listed company, and the performance of listed companies is an important component of macroeconomic, therefore, listed companies can be used as a bridge between the stock market and the macro-economic. Market index by a listed company's share price calculated, but could also reflect the performance of listed companies and stock price changes in the most important indicator is the price-earnings ratio, so we can be judged that the market average price-earnings ratio as the market peak and valley of the basic starting point.

Although the exchange will be posted each day on average price-earnings ratio, but this is a static price-earnings ratio, we need dynamic price-earnings ratio, but how to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio is difficult, and some research purposes and all listed companies to calculate the expected return this year, this year, the dynamic price-earnings ratio, but the expected return deviation will affect the accuracy of dynamic price-earnings ratio. We can also use the latest reporting data to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio, for example can now already announced a quarterly to calculate the price-earnings ratio, but how to project a quarter of their annual profits is still difficult, and must not be simply multiplied by four. That the use of the semi-annual report will be published in full the data, there will still be the same problem, so to calculate dynamic price-earnings ratio to change their thinking.

Although we know that the market is unpredictable highs and lows, but the general area judged the market peak and valley is not entirely impossible, now we return to the market itself to find clues point of departure.

Elements of the market is a listed company, and the performance of listed companies is an important component of macroeconomic, therefore, listed companies can be used as a bridge between the stock market and the macro-economic. Market index by a listed company's share price calculated, but could also reflect the performance of listed companies and stock price changes in the most important indicator is the price-earnings ratio, so we can be judged that the market average price-earnings ratio as the market peak and valley of the basic starting point.

Although the exchange will be posted each day on average price-earnings ratio, but this is a static price-earnings ratio, we need dynamic price-earnings ratio, but how to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio is difficult, and some research purposes and all listed companies to calculate the expected return this year, this year, the dynamic price-earnings ratio, but the expected return deviation will affect the accuracy of dynamic price-earnings ratio. We can also use the latest reporting data to calculate the dynamic price-earnings ratio, for example can now already announced a quarterly to calculate the price-earnings ratio, but how to project a quarter of their annual profits is still difficult, and must not be simply multiplied by four. That the use of the semi-annual report will be published in full the data, there will still be the same problem, so to calculate dynamic price-earnings ratio to change their thinking.


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